Saul Centers Inc (BFS)
Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-managed capital REIT based in Bethesda, Maryland, currently operating and managing a real estate portfolio of 60 properties that includes (a) 50 community and neighborhood shopping centers and seven mixed-use properties with approximately 9.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.97% per annum.
- BFS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $33.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.51% per annum.
- BFS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.75 (10.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BFS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.7436
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0787
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0787) – 1
= 37.01%
May 28, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7436 + -0.0002 × 394 + 2 × 0.0787)
= Exp(3.8345)
= $46.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7436 + -0.0002 × 394 – 2 × 0.0787)
= Exp(3.5197)
= $33.77
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,533 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7436 + -0.0002 × 1,533 + 2 × 0.0787)
= Exp(3.6424)
= $38.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,533 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7436 + -0.0002 × 1,533 – 2 × 0.0787)
= Exp(3.3275)
= $27.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.97% per annum.
- BFS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $33.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: January 6, 2025
a = 3.1000
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0413
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0413) – 1
= 17.98%
March 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1000 + 0.0003 × 1,042 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.5193)
= $33.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1000 + 0.0003 × 1,042 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.3539)
= $28.61
January 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1000 + 0.0003 × 1,713 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.7360)
= $41.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1000 + 0.0003 × 1,713 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.5706)
= $35.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.51% per annum.
- BFS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.75 (10.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.