Saul Centers Inc (BFS)
Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-managed capital REIT based in Bethesda, Maryland, currently operating and managing a real estate portfolio of 60 properties that includes (a) 50 community and neighborhood shopping centers and seven mixed-use properties with approximately 9.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.77% per annum.
- BFS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $38.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.91 (14.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.83% per annum.
- BFS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BFS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2021
End date: November 29, 2023
a = 4.1221
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0657
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0657) – 1
= 30.05%
October 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y555)
= Exp(a + b × X555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1221 + -0.0004 × 804 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(3.9271)
= $50.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y555)
= Exp(a + b × X555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1221 + -0.0004 × 804 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(3.6643)
= $39.03
November 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1221 + -0.0004 × 1,587 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(3.6092)
= $36.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1221 + -0.0004 × 1,587 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(3.3464)
= $28.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.77% per annum.
- BFS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $38.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.91 (14.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1948
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0408
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.74%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1948 + 0.0002 × 1,322 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(3.5830)
= $35.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1948 + 0.0002 × 1,322 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(3.4196)
= $30.56
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1948 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(3.6998)
= $40.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1948 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(3.5365)
= $34.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.83% per annum.
- BFS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.