Stock Price Trends

Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS)

saul centers, inc. (nyse: bfs) is a self-managed, self-administered equity real estate investment trust, formed in 1993 and headquartered in bethesda, maryland. saul centers operates and manages a real estate portfolio of 59 community and neighborhood shopping center and office properties totaling approximately 9.3 million square feet of leaseable area. approximately 85 percent of our cash flow is generated from properties in the metropolitan washington, d.c./baltimore area. saul centers’ primary operating strategy is to continue its program of internal growth, renovations, and expansions of community and neighborhood shopping centers that primarily service the day-to-day necessities and services subsector of the overall retail market. saul centers plans to supplement its internal growth strategy through selective development of new properties and acquisitions of operating properties as appropriate opportunities arise.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.40% per annum.
  • BFS price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $37.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.90 (2.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.99% per annum.
  • BFS price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BFS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

November 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

November 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.40% per annum.
  • BFS price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $37.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.90 (2.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.99% per annum.
  • BFS price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.