Stock Price Trends

Acadia Realty Trust (AKR)

Acadia Realty Trust is an equity real estate investment trust focused on delivering long-term profitable growth through its double?

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.28% per annum.
  • AKR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $19.54 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.26 (14.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.19% per annum.
  • AKR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AKR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 6, 2023
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 1.3313

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0701

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0701) – 1
= 32.36%

March 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3313 + 0.0011 × 1,040 + 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(2.5746)
= $13.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3313 + 0.0011 × 1,040 – 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(2.2942)
= $9.92

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3313 + 0.0011 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(3.3489)
= $28.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3313 + 0.0011 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(3.0685)
= $21.51

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.28% per annum.
  • AKR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $19.54 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.26 (14.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.7222

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0415

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0415) – 1
= 18.05%

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7222 + -0.0015 × 1,650 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(3.3282)
= $27.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7222 + -0.0015 × 1,650 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(3.1622)
= $23.62

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7222 + -0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(3.0654)
= $21.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7222 + -0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(2.8995)
= $18.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.19% per annum.
  • AKR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.