Urban Edge Properties (UE)
Urban Edge Properties is a NYSE-listed real estate investment trust focused on managing, acquiring, developing and remodeling retail real estate in urban communities, primarily in the New York metropolitan region.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.55% per annum.
- UE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $17.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.45% per annum.
- UE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.28 (1.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 1.9751
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0561
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0561) – 1
= 25.17%
September 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9751 + 0.0005 × 1,221 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(2.6848)
= $14.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9751 + 0.0005 × 1,221 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(2.4603)
= $11.71
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9751 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(2.9799)
= $19.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9751 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(2.7554)
= $15.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.55% per annum.
- UE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $17.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.7594
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0244
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0244) – 1
= 10.24%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7594 + -0.0005 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(2.9321)
= $18.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7594 + -0.0005 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(2.8346)
= $17.02
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7594 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(2.8501)
= $17.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7594 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(2.7526)
= $15.68
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.45% per annum.
- UE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.28 (1.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.