Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)
Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of net leased properties to industry leading retail tenants.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.47% per annum.
- ADC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $68.73 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.13 (1.67%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 320.01% per annum.
- ADC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.6589
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0190
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0190) – 1
= 7.91%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6589 + 0.0014 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.0273)
= $56.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6589 + 0.0014 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(3.9512)
= $52.00
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6589 + 0.0014 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.2122)
= $67.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6589 + 0.0014 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.1360)
= $62.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.47% per annum.
- ADC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $68.73 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.13 (1.67%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -2.9524
b = 0.0039
s = 0.0140
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 320.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0140) – 1
= 5.77%
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9524 + 0.0039 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.1254)
= $61.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9524 + 0.0039 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.0692)
= $58.51
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9524 + 0.0039 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.2473)
= $69.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9524 + 0.0039 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.1911)
= $66.10
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 320.01% per annum.
- ADC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.