Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)
Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of net leased properties to industry leading retail tenants.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.54% per annum.
- ADC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $77.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.51% per annum.
- ADC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 2.9999
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0579
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0579) – 1
= 26.04%
September 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9999 + 0.0008 × 1,237 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.0448)
= $57.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9999 + 0.0008 × 1,237 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.8134)
= $45.30
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9999 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.4864)
= $88.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9999 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.2550)
= $70.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.54% per annum.
- ADC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $77.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.9990
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0299
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.70%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9990 + 0.0002 × 1,555 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.3274)
= $75.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9990 + 0.0002 × 1,555 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.2079)
= $67.22
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9990 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.3741)
= $79.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9990 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.2546)
= $70.43
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.51% per annum.
- ADC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.