Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.97% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $36.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.33 (0.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.72% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2024
End date: January 22, 2025
a = 6.0845
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0120
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -50.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0120) – 1
= 4.93%
November 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0845 + -0.0020 × 1,229 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(3.7088)
= $40.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0845 + -0.0020 × 1,229 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(3.6606)
= $38.89
January 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y884)
= Exp(a + b × X884 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0845 + -0.0020 × 1,287 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(3.5955)
= $36.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y884)
= Exp(a + b × X884 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0845 + -0.0020 × 1,287 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(3.5474)
= $34.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.97% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $36.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.33 (0.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 8, 2025
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 2.3580
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0112
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.58%
January 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3580 + 0.0010 × 1,273 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(3.5965)
= $36.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3580 + 0.0010 × 1,273 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(3.5517)
= $34.87
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3580 + 0.0010 × 1,289 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(3.6118)
= $37.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3580 + 0.0010 × 1,289 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(3.5670)
= $35.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.72% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.