Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 96.20% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $38.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 199.04% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 1.4891
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0179
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 96.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0179) – 1
= 7.44%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4891 + 0.0018 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.4508)
= $31.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4891 + 0.0018 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.3790)
= $29.34
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y797)
= Exp(a + b × X797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4891 + 0.0018 × 1,159 + 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.6649)
= $39.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y797)
= Exp(a + b × X797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4891 + 0.0018 × 1,159 – 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.5932)
= $36.35
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 96.20% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $38.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 0.1728
b = 0.0030
s = 0.0103
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 199.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4.20%
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1728 + 0.0030 × 1,117 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.5455)
= $34.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1728 + 0.0030 × 1,117 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.5044)
= $33.26
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y797)
= Exp(a + b × X797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1728 + 0.0030 × 1,159 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.6716)
= $39.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y797)
= Exp(a + b × X797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1728 + 0.0030 × 1,159 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.6305)
= $37.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 199.04% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.