Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.91% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $33.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.79 (2.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 93.08% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2023
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 4.0472
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.37%
November 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y592)
= Exp(a + b × X592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 858 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0472 + -0.0005 × 858 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.6325)
= $37.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y592)
= Exp(a + b × X592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 858 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0472 + -0.0005 × 858 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.5338)
= $34.25
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0472 + -0.0005 × 1,091 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.5064)
= $33.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0472 + -0.0005 × 1,091 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.4078)
= $30.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.91% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $33.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.79 (2.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.5432
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0181
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0181) – 1
= 7.49%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5432 + 0.0018 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.4593)
= $31.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5432 + 0.0018 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.3871)
= $29.58
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y761)
= Exp(a + b × X761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5432 + 0.0018 × 1,106 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.5729)
= $35.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y761)
= Exp(a + b × X761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5432 + 0.0018 × 1,106 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.5006)
= $33.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 93.08% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.