Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.28% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $35.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.23% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 4.4041
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.95%
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4041 + -0.0006 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.6961)
= $40.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4041 + -0.0006 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.6103)
= $36.98
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4041 + -0.0006 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.5880)
= $36.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4041 + -0.0006 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.5023)
= $33.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.28% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $35.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.8875
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0198
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.23%
January 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8875 + -0.0002 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(3.6281)
= $37.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8875 + -0.0002 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(3.5490)
= $34.78
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8875 + -0.0002 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(3.6018)
= $36.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8875 + -0.0002 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(3.5227)
= $33.87
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.23% per annum.
- PECO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.