Stock Price Trends

Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.82% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $31.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.31% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: May 23, 2024

a = 4.1881

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0215

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 9.00%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1881 + -0.0007 × 881 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.6370)
= $37.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1881 + -0.0007 × 881 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.5509)
= $34.84

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1881 + -0.0007 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.5278)
= $34.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1881 + -0.0007 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.4416)
= $31.24

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.82% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $31.53 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: May 23, 2024

a = 4.9357

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0175

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0175) – 1
= 7.25%

February 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y660)
= Exp(a + b × X660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9357 + -0.0014 × 959 + 2 × 0.0175)
= Exp(3.6147)
= $37.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y660)
= Exp(a + b × X660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9357 + -0.0014 × 959 – 2 × 0.0175)
= Exp(3.5447)
= $34.63

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9357 + -0.0014 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.0175)
= Exp(3.4960)
= $32.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9357 + -0.0014 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.0175)
= Exp(3.4260)
= $30.75

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.31% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.