Stock Price Trends

Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.28% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $35.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.23% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 4.4041

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0214

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.95%

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4041 + -0.0006 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.6961)
= $40.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4041 + -0.0006 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.6103)
= $36.98

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4041 + -0.0006 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.5880)
= $36.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4041 + -0.0006 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.5023)
= $33.19

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.28% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $35.01 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 3.8875

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0198

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.23%

January 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8875 + -0.0002 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(3.6281)
= $37.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8875 + -0.0002 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(3.5490)
= $34.78

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8875 + -0.0002 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(3.6018)
= $36.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8875 + -0.0002 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(3.5227)
= $33.87

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.23% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.