Stock Price Trends

Phillips Edison & Co Inc (PECO)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.81% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of November 12, 2025 was $34.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.01% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of November 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PECO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 12, 2025

a = 3.8260

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0256

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.80%

September 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y789)
= Exp(a + b × X789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8260 + -0.0002 × 1,147 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(3.6557)
= $38.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y789)
= Exp(a + b × X789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8260 + -0.0002 × 1,147 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(3.5532)
= $34.92

November 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8260 + -0.0002 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(3.5719)
= $35.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8260 + -0.0002 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(3.4693)
= $32.12

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.81% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of November 12, 2025 was $34.71 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 2, 2025
End date: November 12, 2025

a = 2.1211

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0109

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0109) – 1
= 4.44%

October 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1211 + 0.0009 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(3.5325)
= $34.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1211 + 0.0009 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(3.4890)
= $32.75

November 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1211 + 0.0009 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(3.5695)
= $35.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1211 + 0.0009 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(3.5260)
= $33.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.01% per annum.
  • PECO price at the close of November 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.