Realty Income Corp (O)
Realty Income Corporation is a real estate investment trust that invests in free-standing, single-tenant commercial properties in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United Kingdom that are subject to NNN Leases. The company is organized in Maryland with its headquarters in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.39% per annum.
- O price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $57.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.45 (0.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.21% per annum.
- O price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of O price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 4.3181
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0538
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0538) – 1
= 23.99%
October 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3181 + -0.0002 × 817 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(4.2537)
= $70.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3181 + -0.0002 × 817 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(4.0387)
= $56.75
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3181 + -0.0002 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(4.0446)
= $57.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3181 + -0.0002 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(3.8295)
= $46.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.39% per annum.
- O price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $57.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.45 (0.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.4273
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0443
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.37%
September 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4273 + 0.0003 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(3.9929)
= $54.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4273 + 0.0003 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(3.8158)
= $45.41
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4273 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.0919)
= $59.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4273 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(3.9149)
= $50.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.21% per annum.
- O price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.