Getty Realty Corporation (GTY)
Getty Realty Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.84% per annum.
- GTY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $31.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.29 (15.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.82% per annum.
- GTY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.07 (6.98%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2022
End date: July 9, 2024
a = 4.0301
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0435
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 19.01%
December 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y853)
= Exp(a + b × X853 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0301 + -0.0004 × 1,236 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(3.5731)
= $35.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y853)
= Exp(a + b × X853 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0301 + -0.0004 × 1,236 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(3.3991)
= $29.94
July 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0301 + -0.0004 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(3.3205)
= $27.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0301 + -0.0004 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(3.1465)
= $23.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.84% per annum.
- GTY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $31.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.29 (15.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1211
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0412
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1
= 17.94%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1211 + 0.0001 × 1,518 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.3595)
= $28.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1211 + 0.0001 × 1,518 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.1945)
= $24.40
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1211 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.3911)
= $29.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1211 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.2261)
= $25.18
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.82% per annum.
- GTY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.07 (6.98%).