Stock Price Trends

Getty Realty Corporation (GTY)

Getty Realty Corp.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.07% per annum.
  • GTY price at the close of September 11, 2025 was $28.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.30% per annum.
  • GTY price at the close of September 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2024
End date: September 11, 2025

a = 3.7986

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0257

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0257) – 1
= 10.83%

August 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7986 + -0.0003 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.4744)
= $32.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7986 + -0.0003 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.3716)
= $29.12

September 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7986 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.3752)
= $29.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7986 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.2724)
= $26.37

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.07% per annum.
  • GTY price at the close of September 11, 2025 was $28.49 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 7, 2025
End date: September 11, 2025

a = 1.8150

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0122

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0122) – 1
= 5.01%

July 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8150 + 0.0008 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(3.3301)
= $27.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8150 + 0.0008 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(3.2812)
= $26.61

September 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8150 + 0.0008 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(3.3861)
= $29.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8150 + 0.0008 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(3.3372)
= $28.14

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.30% per annum.
  • GTY price at the close of September 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.