Catalent Inc (CTLT)
Catalent, Inc. (Catalent Pharma Solutions) is a multinational corporation headquartered in Somerset, New Jersey. It is a global provider of delivery technologies, development, drug manufacturing, biologics, gene therapies and consumer health products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.67% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $58.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.99 (20.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.17% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 7, 2021
End date: January 24, 2024
a = 5.6606
b = -0.0012
s = 0.2135
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2135) – 1
= 134.90%
January 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6606 + -0.0012 × 531 + 2 × 0.2135)
= Exp(5.4458)
= $231.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6606 + -0.0012 × 531 – 2 × 0.2135)
= Exp(4.5919)
= $98.68
January 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6606 + -0.0012 × 1,643 + 2 × 0.2135)
= Exp(4.1019)
= $60.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6606 + -0.0012 × 1,643 – 2 × 0.2135)
= Exp(3.2479)
= $25.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.67% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $58.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.99 (20.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.3214
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1072
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1072) – 1
= 53.55%
May 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3214 + 0.0010 × 1,382 + 2 × 0.1072)
= Exp(3.8680)
= $47.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3214 + 0.0010 × 1,382 – 2 × 0.1072)
= Exp(3.4391)
= $31.16
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3214 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1072)
= Exp(4.2960)
= $73.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3214 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1072)
= Exp(3.8671)
= $47.81
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.17% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.