Catalent Inc (CTLT)
Catalent, Inc. (Catalent Pharma Solutions) is a multinational corporation headquartered in Somerset, New Jersey. It is a global provider of delivery technologies, development, drug manufacturing, biologics, gene therapies and consumer health products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.68% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $55.98 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.79 (5.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 359.42% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.54 (19.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 8, 2021
End date: January 25, 2024
a = 5.7551
b = -0.0012
s = 0.2133
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2133) – 1
= 134.75%
January 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y420)
= Exp(a + b × X420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7551 + -0.0012 × 609 + 2 × 0.2133)
= Exp(5.4454)
= $231.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y420)
= Exp(a + b × X420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7551 + -0.0012 × 609 – 2 × 0.2133)
= Exp(4.5920)
= $98.70
January 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7551 + -0.0012 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.2133)
= Exp(4.1008)
= $60.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7551 + -0.0012 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.2133)
= Exp(3.2474)
= $25.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.68% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $55.98 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.79 (5.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: March 14, 2024
a = -3.2716
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 359.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.83%
October 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2716 + 0.0042 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(3.6484)
= $38.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2716 + 0.0042 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(3.4187)
= $30.53
March 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2716 + 0.0042 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.2375)
= $69.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2716 + 0.0042 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.0077)
= $55.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 359.42% per annum.
- CTLT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.54 (19.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.