Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) is an American multinational corporation founded in 1886 that develops medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and consumer packaged goods. Its common stock is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the company is ranked No. 36 on the 2021 Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue. Johnson & Johnson is one of the world's most valuable companies, and is one of only two U.S.-based companies that has a prime credit rating of AAA, higher than that of the United States government.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.08% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $151.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.20% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of May 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.06 (0.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JNJ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 5.2365
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0368
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0368) – 1
= 15.84%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2365 + -0.0001 × 1,037 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.1917)
= $179.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2365 + -0.0001 × 1,037 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.0447)
= $155.19
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2365 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.1017)
= $164.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2365 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(4.9547)
= $141.84
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.08% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $151.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 8.0830
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0147
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0147) – 1
= 6.04%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0830 + -0.0017 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(5.1269)
= $168.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0830 + -0.0017 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(5.0683)
= $158.91
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0830 + -0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(5.0115)
= $150.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0830 + -0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.9528)
= $141.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.20% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of May 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.06 (0.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.