Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) is an American multinational corporation founded in 1886 that develops medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and consumer packaged goods. Its common stock is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the company is ranked No. 36 on the 2021 Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue. Johnson & Johnson is one of the world's most valuable companies, and is one of only two U.S.-based companies that has a prime credit rating of AAA, higher than that of the United States government.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.35% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $160.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.36 (0.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 217.20% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JNJ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 5.2279
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.37%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2279 + -0.0001 × 949 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.1837)
= $178.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2279 + -0.0001 × 949 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.0407)
= $154.57
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2279 + -0.0001 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.0772)
= $160.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2279 + -0.0001 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.9342)
= $138.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.35% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $160.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.36 (0.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -0.7099
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0140
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 217.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0140) – 1
= 5.75%
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7099 + 0.0032 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.9951)
= $147.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7099 + 0.0032 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.9392)
= $139.65
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7099 + 0.0032 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(5.0868)
= $161.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7099 + 0.0032 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(5.0309)
= $153.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 217.20% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.