Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC)
Phibro Animal Health Corporation develops, manufactures and supplies a range of mineral nutrition and animal health products for livestock primarily in the United States. The company is headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.24% per annum.
- PAHC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $17.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.49 (44.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.09% per annum.
- PAHC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.72 (18.14%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PAHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: February 14, 2024
a = 3.7004
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0954
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0954) – 1
= 46.44%
March 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7004 + -0.0008 × 668 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(3.3831)
= $29.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7004 + -0.0008 × 668 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(3.0017)
= $20.12
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7004 + -0.0008 × 1,741 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(2.5672)
= $13.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7004 + -0.0008 × 1,741 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(2.1857)
= $8.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.24% per annum.
- PAHC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $17.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.49 (44.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = -0.3834
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 82.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.21%
November 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3834 + 0.0016 × 1,644 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.4080)
= $11.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3834 + 0.0016 × 1,644 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.2239)
= $9.24
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3834 + 0.0016 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.6855)
= $14.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3834 + 0.0016 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.5014)
= $12.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.09% per annum.
- PAHC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.72 (18.14%).