Amphastar P (AMPH)
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal products in the United States, China, and France. The company is headquartered in Rancho Cucamonga, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.50% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $42.14 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.84 (2.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.04% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.08 (0.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2023
End date: July 19, 2024
a = 7.3189
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0630
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0630) – 1
= 28.65%
November 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3189 + -0.0020 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.2389)
= $69.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3189 + -0.0020 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(3.9870)
= $53.89
July 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3189 + -0.0020 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(3.7331)
= $41.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3189 + -0.0020 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(3.4812)
= $32.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.50% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $42.14 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.84 (2.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.9194
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0326
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.92%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9194 + -0.0007 × 1,690 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.8318)
= $46.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9194 + -0.0007 × 1,690 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.7014)
= $40.51
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9194 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.7390)
= $42.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9194 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.6087)
= $36.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.04% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.08 (0.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.