Amphastar P (AMPH)
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal products in the United States, China, and France. The company is headquartered in Rancho Cucamonga, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.36% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $24.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.87% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 10.8080
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0411
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.85%
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8080 + -0.0042 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.0502)
= $57.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8080 + -0.0042 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.8859)
= $48.71
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8080 + -0.0042 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.2366)
= $25.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8080 + -0.0042 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.0724)
= $21.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.36% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $24.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 1.2911
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.98%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2911 + 0.0010 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(3.1987)
= $24.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2911 + 0.0010 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(3.1220)
= $22.69
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2911 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(3.2174)
= $24.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2911 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(3.1406)
= $23.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.87% per annum.
- AMPH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.