Prestige Brand Holdings Inc (PBH)
Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc., develops, manufactures, markets, distributes and sells over-the-counter (OTC) healthcare products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tarrytown, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.82% per annum.
- PBH price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $69.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.73 (1.05%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.15% per annum.
- PBH price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PBH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2021
End date: February 7, 2024
a = 3.9329
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0578
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0578) – 1
= 26.03%
June 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y524)
= Exp(a + b × X524 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9329 + 0.0001 × 761 + 2 × 0.0578)
= Exp(4.1266)
= $61.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y524)
= Exp(a + b × X524 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9329 + 0.0001 × 761 – 2 × 0.0578)
= Exp(3.8953)
= $49.17
February 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9329 + 0.0001 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0578)
= Exp(4.2266)
= $68.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9329 + 0.0001 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0578)
= Exp(3.9952)
= $54.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.82% per annum.
- PBH price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $69.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.73 (1.05%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.3473
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0411
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.88%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3473 + 0.0011 × 1,580 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.1016)
= $60.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3473 + 0.0011 × 1,580 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.9370)
= $51.27
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3473 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.3619)
= $78.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3473 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.1974)
= $66.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.15% per annum.
- PBH price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.