Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC (JAZZ)
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc, a biopharmaceutical company, identifies, develops, and markets pharmaceutical products for various unmet medical needs in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.78% per annum.
- JAZZ price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $110.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.78% per annum.
- JAZZ price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JAZZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.5063
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0531
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0531) – 1
= 23.64%
March 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5063 + -0.0004 × 1,028 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(5.1949)
= $180.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5063 + -0.0004 × 1,028 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(4.9827)
= $145.87
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5063 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(4.8709)
= $130.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5063 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(4.6587)
= $105.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.78% per annum.
- JAZZ price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $110.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.7721
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0443
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.41%
November 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7721 + -0.0006 × 1,293 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(5.1241)
= $168.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7721 + -0.0006 × 1,293 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.9467)
= $140.71
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7721 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.8204)
= $124.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7721 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.6430)
= $103.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.78% per annum.
- JAZZ price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.