Perrigo Company PLC (PRGO)
Perrigo Company plc is an American Irish registered manufacturer of private label over-the-counter pharmaceuticals.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.17% per annum.
- PRGO price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $31.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.86 (5.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.51% per annum.
- PRGO price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2023
End date: February 26, 2024
a = 1.6722
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0391
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.93%
October 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6722 + 0.0010 × 1,607 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.4216)
= $30.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6722 + 0.0010 × 1,607 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.2651)
= $26.18
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6722 + 0.0010 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.5734)
= $35.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6722 + 0.0010 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.4170)
= $30.48
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.17% per annum.
- PRGO price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $31.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.86 (5.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 19, 2023
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 4.4210
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0525
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0525) – 1
= 23.35%
December 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4210 + -0.0006 × 1,684 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.5817)
= $35.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4210 + -0.0006 × 1,684 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.3719)
= $29.13
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4210 + -0.0006 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.5099)
= $33.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4210 + -0.0006 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.3001)
= $27.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.51% per annum.
- PRGO price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.