Stock Price Trends

Perrigo Company PLC (PRGO)

Perrigo Company plc is an American Irish registered manufacturer of private label over-the-counter pharmaceuticals.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 185.04% per annum.
  • PRGO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $28.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 86.07% per annum.
  • PRGO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 18, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = -1.9069

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0166

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 185.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0166) – 1
= 6.88%

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9069 + 0.0029 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(3.2604)
= $26.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9069 + 0.0029 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(3.1939)
= $24.38

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9069 + 0.0029 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(3.3666)
= $28.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9069 + 0.0029 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(3.3000)
= $27.11

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 185.04% per annum.
  • PRGO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $28.07 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 10, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 0.2247

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0116

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0116) – 1
= 4.73%

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2247 + 0.0017 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(3.3287)
= $27.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2247 + 0.0017 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(3.2825)
= $26.64

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2247 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(3.3542)
= $28.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2247 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(3.3080)
= $27.33

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 86.07% per annum.
  • PRGO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.