Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) is an American multinational pharmaceutical company, headquartered in New York City. Bristol Myers Squibb manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and biologics in several therapeutic areas, including cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hepatitis, rheumatoid arthritis and psychiatric disorders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.74% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $43.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.45% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of May 2, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.18 (10.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: March 4, 2024
a = 5.5073
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0347
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0347) – 1
= 14.89%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y878)
= Exp(a + b × X878 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5073 + -0.0009 × 1,272 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.3958)
= $81.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y878)
= Exp(a + b × X878 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5073 + -0.0009 × 1,272 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.2570)
= $70.60
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5073 + -0.0009 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.9362)
= $51.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5073 + -0.0009 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.7975)
= $44.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.74% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $43.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2023
End date: April 10, 2024
a = 3.4889
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0256
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.78%
October 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4889 + 0.0002 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(3.9450)
= $51.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4889 + 0.0002 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(3.8427)
= $46.65
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4889 + 0.0002 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(3.9864)
= $53.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4889 + 0.0002 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(3.8840)
= $48.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.45% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of May 2, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.18 (10.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.