Viatris Inc (VTRS)
Viatris Inc. is an American global healthcare company headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.31% per annum.
- VTRS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $11.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.01% per annum.
- VTRS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (2.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VTRS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.1251
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0906
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0906) – 1
= 43.66%
February 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1251 + 0.0002 × 469 + 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(2.3970)
= $10.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1251 + 0.0002 × 469 – 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(2.0347)
= $7.65
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y926)
= Exp(a + b × X926 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1251 + 0.0002 × 1,347 + 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(2.5668)
= $13.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y926)
= Exp(a + b × X926 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1251 + 0.0002 × 1,347 – 2 × 0.0906)
= Exp(2.2045)
= $9.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.31% per annum.
- VTRS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $11.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.6131
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0451
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0451) – 1
= 19.77%
February 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y813)
= Exp(a + b × X813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6131 + -0.0009 × 1,183 + 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(2.5928)
= $13.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y813)
= Exp(a + b × X813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6131 + -0.0009 × 1,183 – 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(2.4124)
= $11.16
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y926)
= Exp(a + b × X926 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6131 + -0.0009 × 1,347 + 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(2.4389)
= $11.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y926)
= Exp(a + b × X926 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6131 + -0.0009 × 1,347 – 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(2.2584)
= $9.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.01% per annum.
- VTRS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (2.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.