Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of diseases of the central nervous system in the United States. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.68% per annum.
- SUPN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $32.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.75 (9.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.41% per annum.
- SUPN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (2.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SUPN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: August 6, 2024
a = 3.9343
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0969
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0969) – 1
= 47.32%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9343 + -0.0004 × 818 + 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(3.7984)
= $44.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9343 + -0.0004 × 818 – 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(3.4110)
= $30.29
August 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9343 + -0.0004 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(3.4998)
= $33.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9343 + -0.0004 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(3.1123)
= $22.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.68% per annum.
- SUPN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $32.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.75 (9.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2023
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 2.3708
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0760
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0760) – 1
= 35.55%
September 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3708 + 0.0007 × 1,232 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(3.3931)
= $29.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3708 + 0.0007 × 1,232 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(3.0889)
= $21.95
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3708 + 0.0007 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(3.7639)
= $43.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3708 + 0.0007 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(3.4598)
= $31.81
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.41% per annum.
- SUPN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (2.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.