Innoviva Inc (INVA)
Innoviva, Inc. is dedicated to the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products. The company is headquartered in Burlingame, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.20% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $15.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.83% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.75 (5.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2023
End date: March 7, 2024
a = 1.1355
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0545
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0545) – 1
= 24.36%
February 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1355 + 0.0009 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(2.5277)
= $12.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1355 + 0.0009 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(2.3097)
= $10.07
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1355 + 0.0009 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(2.8777)
= $17.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1355 + 0.0009 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(2.6597)
= $14.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.20% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $15.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 19, 2023
End date: April 22, 2024
a = 4.7214
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0198
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.23%
December 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7214 + -0.0011 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(2.8547)
= $17.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7214 + -0.0011 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(2.7756)
= $16.05
April 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7214 + -0.0011 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(2.7133)
= $15.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7214 + -0.0011 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(2.6342)
= $13.93
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.83% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.75 (5.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.