Innoviva Inc (INVA)
Innoviva, Inc. is dedicated to the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products. The company is headquartered in Burlingame, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.03% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.97% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (1.67%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.4764
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0541
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0541) – 1
= 24.15%
February 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y899)
= Exp(a + b × X899 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4764 + 0.0007 × 1,306 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(2.5516)
= $12.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y899)
= Exp(a + b × X899 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4764 + 0.0007 × 1,306 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(2.3353)
= $10.33
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4764 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(2.9366)
= $18.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4764 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(2.7203)
= $15.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.03% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.1919
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0193
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 69.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0193) – 1
= 8.01%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1919 + 0.0015 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(2.7186)
= $15.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1919 + 0.0015 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(2.6415)
= $14.03
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1919 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(2.8843)
= $17.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1919 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(2.8072)
= $16.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.97% per annum.
- INVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (1.67%).