Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL)
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company located in Stoughton, Massachusetts, focused on developing and commercializing innovative pain management therapies. With a robust portfolio of products, including unique formulations that address various aspects of pain management, Collegium leverages its expertise in drug development to meet the evolving needs of patients. The company is dedicated to improving the quality of care for individuals suffering from pain, positioning itself as a leader in the specialty pharmaceutical sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 112.65% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of December 11, 2025 was $48.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,329.32% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of December 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COLL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: December 11, 2025
a = 0.0056
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0765
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 112.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0765) – 1
= 35.82%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0056 + 0.0021 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(3.4081)
= $30.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0056 + 0.0021 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(3.1020)
= $22.24
December 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0056 + 0.0021 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(3.9270)
= $50.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0056 + 0.0021 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(3.6208)
= $37.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 112.65% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of December 11, 2025 was $48.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2025
End date: December 11, 2025
a = -9.3531
b = 0.0073
s = 0.0514
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0073) – 1
= 1,329.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0514) – 1
= 22.80%
October 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.3531 + 0.0073 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(3.5603)
= $35.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.3531 + 0.0073 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(3.3549)
= $28.64
December 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.3531 + 0.0073 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(4.0340)
= $56.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.3531 + 0.0073 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(3.8286)
= $46.00
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,329.32% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of December 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.