Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL)
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and markets pain management medications. The company is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 226.24% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $38.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.35 (5.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.32% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COLL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 11, 2023
End date: April 10, 2024
a = -2.1079
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0542
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 226.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.23%
September 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1079 + 0.0032 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.1386)
= $23.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1079 + 0.0032 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.9216)
= $18.57
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1079 + 0.0032 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.8254)
= $45.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1079 + 0.0032 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.6084)
= $36.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 226.24% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $38.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.35 (5.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.3239
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.77%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3239 + -0.0004 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.7202)
= $41.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3239 + -0.0004 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.5567)
= $35.05
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3239 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.6909)
= $40.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3239 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.5273)
= $34.03
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.32% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.