Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL)
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and markets pain management medications. The company is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.85% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $35.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.75% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.61 (4.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COLL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 18, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.8292
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1255
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1255) – 1
= 65.23%
April 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y687)
= Exp(a + b × X687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 997 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8292 + 0.0010 × 997 + 2 × 0.1255)
= Exp(3.0352)
= $20.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y687)
= Exp(a + b × X687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 997 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8292 + 0.0010 × 997 – 2 × 0.1255)
= Exp(2.5330)
= $12.59
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8292 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1255)
= Exp(3.8291)
= $46.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8292 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1255)
= Exp(3.3269)
= $27.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.85% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $35.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.4927
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.17%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4927 + -0.0017 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.7553)
= $42.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4927 + -0.0017 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.5799)
= $35.87
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4927 + -0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.5207)
= $33.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4927 + -0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.3453)
= $28.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.75% per annum.
- COLL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.61 (4.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.