Organon & Co (OGN)
Organon & Co. is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey. Organon specializes in the following core therapeutic fields: reproductive medicine, contraception, psychiatry, Hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and anesthesia. The company sells to international markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 227.76% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $20.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.00% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = -0.5029
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0782
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 227.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0782) – 1
= 36.73%
November 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y611)
= Exp(a + b × X611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5029 + 0.0033 × 902 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(2.5871)
= $13.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y611)
= Exp(a + b × X611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5029 + 0.0033 × 902 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(2.2743)
= $9.72
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5029 + 0.0033 × 1,091 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(3.2018)
= $24.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5029 + 0.0033 × 1,091 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(2.8890)
= $17.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 227.76% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $20.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 8, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 1.2744
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0376
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 76.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.21%
January 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2744 + 0.0015 × 969 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(2.8503)
= $17.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2744 + 0.0015 × 969 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(2.7001)
= $14.88
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2744 + 0.0015 × 1,091 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(3.0393)
= $20.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2744 + 0.0015 × 1,091 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(2.8890)
= $17.98
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.00% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.