Organon & Co (OGN)
Organon & Co. is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey. Organon specializes in the following core therapeutic fields: reproductive medicine, contraception, psychiatry, Hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and anesthesia. The company sells to international markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.91% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $13.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.23% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.34 (2.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 4.6513
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0744
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0744) – 1
= 34.67%
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6513 + -0.0014 × 1,096 + 2 × 0.0744)
= Exp(3.2204)
= $25.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6513 + -0.0014 × 1,096 – 2 × 0.0744)
= Exp(2.9228)
= $18.59
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6513 + -0.0014 × 1,446 + 2 × 0.0744)
= Exp(2.7159)
= $15.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6513 + -0.0014 × 1,446 – 2 × 0.0744)
= Exp(2.4183)
= $11.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.91% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $13.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 13.0718
b = -0.0074
s = 0.0742
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0074) – 1
= -93.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0742) – 1
= 34.55%
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.0718 + -0.0074 × 1,393 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(2.9422)
= $18.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.0718 + -0.0074 × 1,393 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(2.6454)
= $14.09
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.0718 + -0.0074 × 1,446 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(2.5511)
= $12.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.0718 + -0.0074 × 1,446 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(2.2544)
= $9.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.23% per annum.
- OGN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.34 (2.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.