Stock Price Trends

Pfizer Inc (PFE)

Pfizer Inc. is an American multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology corporation headquartered on 42nd Street in Manhattan, New York City. The name of the company commemorates its co-founder, Charles Pfizer (1824-1906). Pfizer develops and produces medicines and vaccines for immunology, oncology, cardiology, endocrinology, and neurology. The company has several blockbuster drugs or products that each generate more than 1 billion USD in annual revenues.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.35% per annum.
  • PFE price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $25.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.38% per annum.
  • PFE price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PFE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 1, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024

a = 5.3293

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0411

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.88%

November 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3293 + -0.0012 × 1,282 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.9332)
= $51.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3293 + -0.0012 × 1,282 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.7687)
= $43.32

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3293 + -0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.3082)
= $27.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3293 + -0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.1437)
= $23.19

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.35% per annum.
  • PFE price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $25.40 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 19, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024

a = 4.4683

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0269

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.38%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0269) – 1
= 11.36%

October 19, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4683 + -0.0007 × 1,634 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(3.4453)
= $31.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4683 + -0.0007 × 1,634 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(3.3377)
= $28.15

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4683 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(3.3201)
= $27.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4683 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(3.2124)
= $24.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.38% per annum.
  • PFE price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.