Merck & Company Inc (MRK)
Merck & Co. is an American multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey. It is named after the Merck family, which set up Merck Group in Germany in 1668.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.57% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $131.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.16% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of April 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $17.15 (15.04%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2021
End date: July 12, 2023
a = 3.6917
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0544
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0544) – 1
= 24.32%
January 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y441)
= Exp(a + b × X441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6917 + 0.0007 × 639 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(4.2268)
= $68.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y441)
= Exp(a + b × X441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6917 + 0.0007 × 639 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(4.0091)
= $55.10
July 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6917 + 0.0007 × 1,535 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(4.8246)
= $124.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6917 + 0.0007 × 1,535 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(4.6069)
= $100.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.57% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $131.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2022
End date: December 29, 2023
a = 4.6493
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0396
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0396) – 1
= 17.16%
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6493 + 0.0000 × 1,277 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.7342)
= $113.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6493 + 0.0000 × 1,277 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.5759)
= $97.11
December 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6493 + 0.0000 × 1,705 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.7361)
= $113.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6493 + 0.0000 × 1,705 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.5778)
= $97.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.16% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of April 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $17.15 (15.04%).