ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc (ANIP)
ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, and markets brand-name and generic prescription pharmaceuticals in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Baudette, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.55% per annum.
- ANIP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $63.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.75% per annum.
- ANIP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANIP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2022
End date: June 14, 2024
a = 2.2646
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0915
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0915) – 1
= 44.20%
March 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y663)
= Exp(a + b × X663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2646 + 0.0011 × 960 + 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(3.5237)
= $33.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y663)
= Exp(a + b × X663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2646 + 0.0011 × 960 – 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(3.1577)
= $23.52
June 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2646 + 0.0011 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(4.4452)
= $85.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2646 + 0.0011 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(4.0792)
= $59.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.55% per annum.
- ANIP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $63.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.2897
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0270
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.42%
February 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2897 + -0.0006 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.2756)
= $71.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2897 + -0.0006 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.1675)
= $64.55
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2897 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.1813)
= $65.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2897 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.0731)
= $58.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.75% per annum.
- ANIP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.