Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc (IRWD)
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a healthcare company, focuses on the development and commercialization of gastrointestinal (GI) products. The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.83% per annum.
- IRWD price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $6.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.48 (18.04%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,284.03% per annum.
- IRWD price at the close of May 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $21.29 (75.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 21, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 2.8040
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0618
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0618) – 1
= 28.02%
June 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8040 + -0.0003 × 773 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(2.6847)
= $14.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8040 + -0.0003 × 773 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(2.4377)
= $11.45
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8040 + -0.0003 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(2.4008)
= $11.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8040 + -0.0003 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(2.1538)
= $8.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.83% per annum.
- IRWD price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $6.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.48 (18.04%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: February 14, 2024
a = -9.7848
b = 0.0072
s = 0.0135
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0072) – 1
= 1,284.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0135) – 1
= 5.55%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.7848 + 0.0072 × 1,718 + 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(2.6099)
= $13.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.7848 + 0.0072 × 1,718 – 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(2.5558)
= $12.88
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.7848 + 0.0072 × 1,741 + 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(2.7754)
= $16.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.7848 + 0.0072 × 1,741 – 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(2.7214)
= $15.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,284.03% per annum.
- IRWD price at the close of May 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $21.29 (75.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.