Stock Price Trends

Carter’s Inc (CRI)

Carter's, Inc. designs, supplies, and markets branded children's clothing under the brands Carter's, OshKosh, Skip Hop, Child of Mine, Just One You, Simple Joys, Carter's little baby basics, and other brands in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.58% per annum.
  • CRI price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $71.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.80 (10.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.62% per annum.
  • CRI price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: April 3, 2024

a = 1.9331

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0321

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0321) – 1
= 13.70%

September 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9331 + 0.0014 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(4.2036)
= $66.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9331 + 0.0014 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(4.0752)
= $58.86

April 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9331 + 0.0014 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(4.4951)
= $89.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9331 + 0.0014 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(4.3667)
= $78.79

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.58% per annum.
  • CRI price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $71.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.80 (10.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 12, 2024
End date: April 19, 2024

a = 14.3236

b = -0.0055

s = 0.0252

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0055) – 1
= -86.62%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0252) – 1
= 10.62%

March 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3236 + -0.0055 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.5321)
= $92.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3236 + -0.0055 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.4312)
= $84.03

April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3236 + -0.0055 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.3227)
= $75.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3236 + -0.0055 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.2218)
= $68.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.62% per annum.
  • CRI price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.