Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Tapestry, Inc. is an American multinational luxury fashion holding company. It is based in New York City and is the parent company of three major brands: Coach New York, Kate Spade New York and Stuart Weitzman.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.73% per annum.
- TPR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $40.82 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.57 (61.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.26% per annum.
- TPR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2021
End date: November 21, 2022
a = 3.9990
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0722
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0722) – 1
= 33.47%
February 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9990 + -0.0005 × 555 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(3.8651)
= $47.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9990 + -0.0005 × 555 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(3.5764)
= $35.74
November 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y837)
= Exp(a + b × X837 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9990 + -0.0005 × 1,211 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(3.5361)
= $34.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y837)
= Exp(a + b × X837 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9990 + -0.0005 × 1,211 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(3.2474)
= $25.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.73% per annum.
- TPR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $40.82 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.57 (61.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.5528
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1389) – 1
= 74.32%
February 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5528 + 0.0000 × 555 + 2 × 0.1389)
= Exp(3.8498)
= $46.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5528 + 0.0000 × 555 – 2 × 0.1389)
= Exp(3.2941)
= $26.95
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5528 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1389)
= Exp(3.8935)
= $49.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5528 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1389)
= Exp(3.3377)
= $28.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.26% per annum.
- TPR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.