PVH Corp (PVH)
PVH Corp., formerly known as the Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation, is an American clothing company which owns brands such as Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, IZOD, Arrow, Warner's, Olga, True & Co., and Geoffrey Beene.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.51% per annum.
- PVH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $97.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.44 (1.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.01% per annum.
- PVH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PVH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: June 26, 2024
a = 2.8229
b = 0.0011
s = 0.1390
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1390) – 1
= 74.34%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8229 + 0.0011 × 1,053 + 2 × 0.1390)
= Exp(4.2805)
= $72.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8229 + 0.0011 × 1,053 – 2 × 0.1390)
= Exp(3.7246)
= $41.45
June 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8229 + 0.0011 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.1390)
= Exp(5.1139)
= $166.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8229 + 0.0011 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.1390)
= Exp(4.5581)
= $95.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.51% per annum.
- PVH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $97.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.44 (1.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.4481
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0645
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -43.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0645) – 1
= 29.44%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4481 + -0.0015 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0645)
= Exp(5.0230)
= $151.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4481 + -0.0015 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0645)
= Exp(4.7650)
= $117.33
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4481 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0645)
= Exp(4.7642)
= $117.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4481 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0645)
= Exp(4.5062)
= $90.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.01% per annum.
- PVH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.