Ralph Lauren Corp Class A (RL)
Ralph Lauren Corporation is an American fashion company producing products ranging from the mid-range to the luxury segments. They are known for the clothing, marketing and distribution of products in four categories: apparel, home, accessories, and fragrances.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.05% per annum.
- RL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $161.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.84% per annum.
- RL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.89 (2.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.4102
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0905
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0905) – 1
= 43.60%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4102 + 0.0010 × 1,053 + 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(4.6039)
= $99.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4102 + 0.0010 × 1,053 – 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(4.2420)
= $69.55
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4102 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(5.3473)
= $210.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4102 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(4.9854)
= $146.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.05% per annum.
- RL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $161.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 16, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.1276
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0846
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0846) – 1
= 40.25%
August 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1276 + 0.0017 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.0846)
= Exp(4.8563)
= $128.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1276 + 0.0017 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.0846)
= Exp(4.5180)
= $91.66
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1276 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0846)
= Exp(5.4504)
= $232.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1276 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0846)
= Exp(5.1122)
= $166.03
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.84% per annum.
- RL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.89 (2.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.