Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)
Marathon Oil Corporation is an American company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration incorporated in Ohio and headquartered in the Marathon Oil Tower in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.05% per annum.
- MRO price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $26.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 152.87% per annum.
- MRO price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 3.1807
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0960
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0960) – 1
= 46.81%
February 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1807 + 0.0000 × 1,028 + 2 × 0.0960)
= Exp(3.4020)
= $30.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1807 + 0.0000 × 1,028 – 2 × 0.0960)
= Exp(3.0181)
= $20.45
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1807 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0960)
= Exp(3.4248)
= $30.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1807 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0960)
= Exp(3.0409)
= $20.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.05% per annum.
- MRO price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $26.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 10, 2024
End date: May 6, 2024
a = -1.2641
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0463
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 152.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0463) – 1
= 20.35%
January 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2641 + 0.0025 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.1723)
= $23.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2641 + 0.0025 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(2.9870)
= $19.83
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2641 + 0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.4696)
= $32.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2641 + 0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.2844)
= $26.69
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 152.87% per annum.
- MRO price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.