Stock Price Trends

Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)

Diamondback Energy is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and headquartered in Midland, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.31% per annum.
  • FANG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $199.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.02 (1.53%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.63% per annum.
  • FANG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FANG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 4, 2021
End date: February 14, 2024

a = 4.1997

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0786

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0786) – 1
= 36.95%

October 4, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1997 + 0.0005 × 801 + 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(4.7628)
= $117.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1997 + 0.0005 × 801 – 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(4.4483)
= $85.48

February 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1997 + 0.0005 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(5.2000)
= $181.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1997 + 0.0005 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(4.8856)
= $132.36

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.31% per annum.
  • FANG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $199.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.02 (1.53%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 3.0682

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0558

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 24.99%

May 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0682 + 0.0012 × 1,376 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.8954)
= $133.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0682 + 0.0012 × 1,376 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.6723)
= $106.94

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0682 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.4565)
= $234.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0682 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.2334)
= $187.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.63% per annum.
  • FANG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.