Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)
Diamondback Energy is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.31% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $199.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.02 (1.53%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.63% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FANG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 4, 2021
End date: February 14, 2024
a = 4.1997
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0786
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0786) – 1
= 36.95%
October 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1997 + 0.0005 × 801 + 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(4.7628)
= $117.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1997 + 0.0005 × 801 – 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(4.4483)
= $85.48
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1997 + 0.0005 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(5.2000)
= $181.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1997 + 0.0005 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(4.8856)
= $132.36
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.31% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $199.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.02 (1.53%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.0682
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 24.99%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0682 + 0.0012 × 1,376 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.8954)
= $133.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0682 + 0.0012 × 1,376 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.6723)
= $106.94
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0682 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.4565)
= $234.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0682 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.2334)
= $187.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.63% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.