Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)
Diamondback Energy is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 120.29% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $203.72 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $238.37 (53.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.31% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of May 9, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $9.29 (4.78%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FANG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: June 16, 2022
a = 2.5142
b = 0.0022
s = 0.1868
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1868) – 1
= 111.13%
March 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y208)
= Exp(a + b × X208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5142 + 0.0022 × 304 + 2 × 0.1868)
= Exp(3.5456)
= $34.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y208)
= Exp(a + b × X208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5142 + 0.0022 × 304 – 2 × 0.1868)
= Exp(2.7983)
= $16.42
June 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y782)
= Exp(a + b × X782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5142 + 0.0022 × 1,133 + 2 × 0.1868)
= Exp(5.3393)
= $208.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y782)
= Exp(a + b × X782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5142 + 0.0022 × 1,133 – 2 × 0.1868)
= Exp(4.5920)
= $98.70
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 120.29% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $203.72 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $238.37 (53.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2021
End date: March 8, 2024
a = 4.1437
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0800
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0800) – 1
= 37.71%
October 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 875 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1437 + 0.0005 × 875 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.7668)
= $117.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 875 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1437 + 0.0005 × 875 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.4468)
= $85.35
March 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1437 + 0.0005 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(5.2373)
= $188.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1437 + 0.0005 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.9173)
= $136.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.31% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of May 9, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $9.29 (4.78%).