Stock Price Trends

Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.65% per annum.
  • CHRD price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $181.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 116.17% per annum.
  • CHRD price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHRD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2021
End date: May 13, 2024

a = 4.3034

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0681

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0681) – 1
= 31.31%

October 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3034 + 0.0007 × 340 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.6742)
= $107.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3034 + 0.0007 × 340 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.4019)
= $81.60

May 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3034 + 0.0007 × 1,270 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(5.3161)
= $203.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3034 + 0.0007 × 1,270 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(5.0437)
= $155.04

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.65% per annum.
  • CHRD price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $181.10 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 13, 2024

a = 2.5598

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0277

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 116.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.70%

January 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5598 + 0.0021 × 1,152 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.0481)
= $155.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5598 + 0.0021 × 1,152 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(4.9375)
= $139.42

May 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5598 + 0.0021 × 1,270 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.2974)
= $199.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5598 + 0.0021 × 1,270 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.1867)
= $178.88

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 116.17% per annum.
  • CHRD price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.