Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.65% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $181.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 116.17% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHRD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2021
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 4.3034
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0681
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0681) – 1
= 31.31%
October 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3034 + 0.0007 × 340 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.6742)
= $107.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3034 + 0.0007 × 340 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.4019)
= $81.60
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3034 + 0.0007 × 1,270 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(5.3161)
= $203.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3034 + 0.0007 × 1,270 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(5.0437)
= $155.04
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.65% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $181.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 2.5598
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0277
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 116.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.70%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5598 + 0.0021 × 1,152 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.0481)
= $155.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5598 + 0.0021 × 1,152 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(4.9375)
= $139.42
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5598 + 0.0021 × 1,270 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.2974)
= $199.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5598 + 0.0021 × 1,270 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.1867)
= $178.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 116.17% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.