Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)
Devon Energy Corporation is an American energy company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the American market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.71% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $52.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.19 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 342.12% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.76 (3.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2022
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 4.6642
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0959
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0959) – 1
= 46.73%
March 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y730)
= Exp(a + b × X730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6642 + -0.0005 × 1,057 + 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(4.3263)
= $75.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y730)
= Exp(a + b × X730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6642 + -0.0005 × 1,057 – 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.9428)
= $51.56
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6642 + -0.0005 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.9570)
= $52.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6642 + -0.0005 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.5735)
= $35.64
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.71% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $52.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.19 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2024
End date: April 15, 2024
a = -3.3949
b = 0.0041
s = 0.0177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 342.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0177) – 1
= 7.33%
January 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.3949 + 0.0041 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(3.7182)
= $41.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.3949 + 0.0041 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(3.6475)
= $38.38
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.3949 + 0.0041 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.0237)
= $55.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.3949 + 0.0041 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(3.9529)
= $52.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 342.12% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.76 (3.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.