Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)
Devon Energy Corporation is an American energy company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the American market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.51% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $46.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.36% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.4460
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1007
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1007) – 1
= 49.61%
March 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y667)
= Exp(a + b × X667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4460 + -0.0004 × 966 + 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(4.2939)
= $73.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y667)
= Exp(a + b × X667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4460 + -0.0004 × 966 – 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(3.8910)
= $48.96
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4460 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(3.9791)
= $53.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4460 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(3.5762)
= $35.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.51% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $46.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.9299
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0603
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0603) – 1
= 27.30%
October 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9299 + 0.0005 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(3.8748)
= $48.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9299 + 0.0005 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(3.6334)
= $37.84
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9299 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(4.0191)
= $55.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9299 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(3.7777)
= $43.72
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.36% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.