Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL)
Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL) is a leading land and resource management company based in Dallas, Texas, specializing in the acquisition, management, and monetization of its extensive land holdings. The Trust is particularly focused on water resource operations, offering critical services to the thriving oil and gas sector in the Permian Basin. TPL's unique business model, which capitalizes on both land leasing and resource sales, positions it as a resilient player in the energy market, providing significant growth opportunities and attractive returns for investors. With a robust financial foundation and a commitment to sustainable practices, TPL remains well-positioned to navigate the evolving landscape of natural resource management.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.19% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of February 11, 2026 was $413.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $93.25 (29.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.88% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of February 11, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $54.22 (15.09%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: January 12, 2026
a = 7.9204
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0872
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0872) – 1
= 41.73%
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9204 + -0.0013 × 1,362 + 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(6.3592)
= $577.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9204 + -0.0013 × 1,362 – 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(6.0105)
= $407.67
January 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9204 + -0.0013 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(5.8074)
= $332.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9204 + -0.0013 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0872)
= Exp(5.4587)
= $234.79
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.19% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of February 11, 2026 was $413.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $93.25 (29.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2025
End date: February 9, 2026
a = 5.0368
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0551
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0551) – 1
= 24.68%
August 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0368 + 0.0004 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(5.8059)
= $332.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0368 + 0.0004 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(5.5853)
= $266.47
February 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0368 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(5.8834)
= $359.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0368 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(5.6628)
= $287.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.88% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of February 11, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $54.22 (15.09%).