Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL)
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is engaged in land and resource management, and water operations and services businesses. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 207.78% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $1,372.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.77% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 10, 2024
End date: February 14, 2025
a = 1.6927
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0948
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 207.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0948) – 1
= 46.13%
January 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6927 + 0.0031 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0948)
= Exp(6.2621)
= $524.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6927 + 0.0031 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0948)
= Exp(5.8828)
= $358.82
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6927 + 0.0031 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0948)
= Exp(7.4972)
= $1,802.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6927 + 0.0031 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0948)
= Exp(7.1179)
= $1,233.86
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 207.78% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $1,372.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: February 14, 2025
a = 8.4456
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0972
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0972) – 1
= 47.50%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4456 + -0.0007 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(7.4202)
= $1,669.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4456 + -0.0007 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(7.0315)
= $1,131.73
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4456 + -0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(7.3494)
= $1,555.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4456 + -0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(6.9607)
= $1,054.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.77% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.