Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL)
Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL) is a leading land and resource management company based in Dallas, Texas, specializing in the acquisition, management, and monetization of its extensive land holdings. The Trust is particularly focused on water resource operations, offering critical services to the thriving oil and gas sector in the Permian Basin. TPL's unique business model, which capitalizes on both land leasing and resource sales, positions it as a resilient player in the energy market, providing significant growth opportunities and attractive returns for investors. With a robust financial foundation and a commitment to sustainable practices, TPL remains well-positioned to navigate the evolving landscape of natural resource management.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3,032.33% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of March 16, 2026 was $526.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.91% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of March 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 26, 2025
End date: March 16, 2026
a = -10.8816
b = 0.0094
s = 0.0606
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0094) – 1
= 3,032.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0606) – 1
= 27.42%
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.8816 + 0.0094 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(5.7065)
= $300.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.8816 + 0.0094 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(5.4642)
= $236.08
March 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.8816 + 0.0094 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(6.4614)
= $639.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.8816 + 0.0094 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(6.2191)
= $502.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3,032.33% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of March 16, 2026 was $526.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2026
End date: March 16, 2026
a = 5.9363
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0112
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.59%
February 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9363 + 0.0002 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(6.2898)
= $539.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9363 + 0.0002 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(6.2449)
= $515.38
March 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9363 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(6.2929)
= $540.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9363 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(6.2480)
= $516.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.91% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of March 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.