Stock Price Trends

Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.81% per annum.
  • CRGY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $8.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,278.93% per annum.
  • CRGY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRGY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 13, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 11.4934

b = -0.0076

s = 0.0880

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0076) – 1
= -93.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0880) – 1
= 42.20%

January 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y776)
= Exp(a + b × X776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4934 + -0.0076 × 1,132 + 2 × 0.0880)
= Exp(3.0424)
= $20.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y776)
= Exp(a + b × X776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4934 + -0.0076 × 1,132 – 2 × 0.0880)
= Exp(2.6903)
= $14.74

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4934 + -0.0076 × 1,238 + 2 × 0.0880)
= Exp(2.2345)
= $9.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4934 + -0.0076 × 1,238 – 2 × 0.0880)
= Exp(1.8825)
= $6.57

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.81% per annum.
  • CRGY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $8.56 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = -6.7307

b = 0.0072

s = 0.0216

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0072) – 1
= 1,278.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0216) – 1
= 9.02%

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y837)
= Exp(a + b × X837 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.7307 + 0.0072 × 1,219 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(2.0756)
= $7.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y837)
= Exp(a + b × X837 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.7307 + 0.0072 × 1,219 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(1.9892)
= $7.31

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.7307 + 0.0072 × 1,238 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(2.2122)
= $9.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.7307 + 0.0072 × 1,238 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(2.1258)
= $8.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,278.93% per annum.
  • CRGY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.