ConocoPhillips (COP)
ConocoPhillips is an American multinational corporation engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is based in the Energy Corridor district of Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.70% per annum.
- COP price at the close of April 29, 2024 was $130.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 131.90% per annum.
- COP price at the close of April 29, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2022
End date: March 22, 2024
a = 4.5078
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0731
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0731) – 1
= 33.97%
August 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5078 + 0.0001 × 1,206 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.8059)
= $122.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5078 + 0.0001 × 1,206 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.5134)
= $91.24
March 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5078 + 0.0001 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.8792)
= $131.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5078 + 0.0001 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.5867)
= $98.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.70% per annum.
- COP price at the close of April 29, 2024 was $130.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 0.6855
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0277
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 131.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.70%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6855 + 0.0023 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(4.7092)
= $110.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6855 + 0.0023 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(4.5985)
= $99.34
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6855 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(4.9488)
= $141.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6855 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(4.8382)
= $126.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 131.90% per annum.
- COP price at the close of April 29, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.