ConocoPhillips (COP)
ConocoPhillips (COP) is a leading American multinational corporation specializing in hydrocarbon exploration and production, with a strong focus on upstream activities in oil and natural gas. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company boasts a diverse portfolio of assets across North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, positioning it as one of the largest independent exploration and production companies globally. ConocoPhillips is committed to sustainable practices and innovation in energy technology, actively pursuing opportunities to enhance operational efficiency and reduce environmental impact. With a strategic approach to capital allocation and a robust balance sheet, ConocoPhillips is well-equipped to navigate the evolving energy landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.53% per annum.
- COP price at the close of February 2, 2026 was $101.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (4.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 72.87% per annum.
- COP price at the close of February 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2023
End date: December 31, 2025
a = 5.0263
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0566
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0566) – 1
= 25.41%
July 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0263 + -0.0003 × 901 + 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.8649)
= $129.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0263 + -0.0003 × 901 – 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.6385)
= $103.39
December 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0263 + -0.0003 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.5934)
= $98.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0263 + -0.0003 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.3670)
= $78.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.53% per annum.
- COP price at the close of February 2, 2026 was $101.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (4.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2025
End date: February 2, 2026
a = 1.8705
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0211
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0211) – 1
= 8.82%
October 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8705 + 0.0015 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.4832)
= $88.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8705 + 0.0015 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.3986)
= $81.34
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8705 + 0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.6497)
= $104.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8705 + 0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.5651)
= $96.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 72.87% per annum.
- COP price at the close of February 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.