Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA)
Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, explores, exploits, develops, produces and markets oil and gas properties in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.98% per annum.
- CTRA price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $27.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.50% per annum.
- CTRA price at the close of May 13, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (0.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTRA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 24, 2022
End date: March 22, 2024
a = 3.2800
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0733
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0733) – 1
= 34.05%
March 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y722)
= Exp(a + b × X722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,045 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2800 + 0.0000 × 1,045 + 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(3.3982)
= $29.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y722)
= Exp(a + b × X722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,045 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2800 + 0.0000 × 1,045 – 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(3.1052)
= $22.31
March 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2800 + 0.0000 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(3.3786)
= $29.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2800 + 0.0000 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(3.0855)
= $21.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.98% per annum.
- CTRA price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $27.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 0.1836
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0223
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 89.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0223) – 1
= 9.33%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1836 + 0.0018 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(3.2193)
= $25.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1836 + 0.0018 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(3.1301)
= $22.88
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1836 + 0.0018 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(3.4015)
= $30.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1836 + 0.0018 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(3.3123)
= $27.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.50% per annum.
- CTRA price at the close of May 13, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (0.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.