Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation is an American company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the United States, the Middle East, and Colombia as well as petrochemical manufacturing in the United States, Canada, and Chile.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.62% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $67.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.92 (1.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 119.54% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OXY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2022
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 4.2689
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0590
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0590) – 1
= 26.59%
May 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2689 + -0.0001 × 1,100 + 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(4.2757)
= $71.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2689 + -0.0001 × 1,100 – 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(4.0399)
= $56.82
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2689 + -0.0001 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(4.2056)
= $67.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2689 + -0.0001 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(3.9698)
= $52.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.62% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $67.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.92 (1.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 0.3035
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 119.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.78%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3035 + 0.0022 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.0531)
= $57.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3035 + 0.0022 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(3.9782)
= $53.42
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3035 + 0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.2707)
= $71.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3035 + 0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1958)
= $66.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 119.54% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.