SM Energy Co (SM)
SM Energy Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company headquartered in Denver, Colorado, with a primary focus on the acquisition and development of energy resources in the prolific basins of Texas. The company actively explores for, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, leveraging advanced technologies and strategic operations to enhance its resource base and operational efficiencies. SM Energy is committed to sustainable practices and continuous improvement, aiming to deliver long-term value to its shareholders while being a responsible steward of natural resources.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.22% per annum.
- SM price at the close of March 17, 2026 was $26.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.97 (22.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 923.58% per annum.
- SM price at the close of March 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
March 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.22% per annum.
- SM price at the close of March 17, 2026 was $26.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.97 (22.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
January 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
March 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 923.58% per annum.
- SM price at the close of March 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.