SM Energy Co (SM)
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.17% per annum.
- SM price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $49.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 64.22% per annum.
- SM price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2021
End date: March 8, 2024
a = 3.4436
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1557
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1557) – 1
= 86.41%
October 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 870 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4436 + 0.0001 × 870 + 2 × 0.1557)
= Exp(3.8293)
= $46.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 870 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4436 + 0.0001 × 870 – 2 × 0.1557)
= Exp(3.2065)
= $24.69
March 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4436 + 0.0001 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.1557)
= Exp(3.9052)
= $49.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4436 + 0.0001 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.1557)
= Exp(3.2824)
= $26.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.17% per annum.
- SM price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $49.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2023
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 1.4072
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0957
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0957) – 1
= 46.64%
February 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4072 + 0.0014 × 1,374 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.4659)
= $32.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4072 + 0.0014 × 1,374 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.0831)
= $21.83
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4072 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(4.0802)
= $59.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4072 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.6973)
= $40.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 64.22% per annum.
- SM price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.