Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Murphy Oil Corporation is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.54% per annum.
- MUR price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $43.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.63% per annum.
- MUR price at the close of May 13, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.22 (0.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MUR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 3.2791
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1063
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1063) – 1
= 52.96%
February 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y704)
= Exp(a + b × X704 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2791 + 0.0003 × 1,021 + 2 × 0.1063)
= Exp(3.7720)
= $43.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y704)
= Exp(a + b × X704 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2791 + 0.0003 × 1,021 – 2 × 0.1063)
= Exp(3.3470)
= $28.42
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2791 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1063)
= Exp(3.9931)
= $54.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2791 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1063)
= Exp(3.5681)
= $35.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.54% per annum.
- MUR price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $43.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 13, 2024
a = -0.1311
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0428
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 122.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0428) – 1
= 18.65%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1311 + 0.0022 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.6995)
= $40.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1311 + 0.0022 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.5285)
= $34.07
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1311 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.9582)
= $52.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1311 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.7872)
= $44.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.63% per annum.
- MUR price at the close of May 13, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.22 (0.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.