Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Murphy Oil Corporation is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.58% per annum.
- MUR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $40.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.14% per annum.
- MUR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MUR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.3186
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1038
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1038) – 1
= 51.49%
February 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 928 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3186 + 0.0003 × 928 + 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.7587)
= $42.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 928 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3186 + 0.0003 × 928 – 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.3434)
= $28.31
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3186 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.9832)
= $53.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3186 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1038)
= Exp(3.5679)
= $35.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.58% per annum.
- MUR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $40.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 6.4009
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0324
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0324) – 1
= 13.84%
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4009 + -0.0015 × 1,704 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(3.9118)
= $49.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4009 + -0.0015 × 1,704 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(3.7821)
= $43.91
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4009 + -0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(3.7319)
= $41.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4009 + -0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(3.6023)
= $36.68
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.14% per annum.
- MUR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.