Stock Price Trends

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)

Murphy Oil Corporation is a leading exploration and production company focused on oil and natural gas markets, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, and select international regions. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, Murphy Oil has established a strong foothold in the hydrocarbon sector, leveraging advanced technologies and strategic partnerships to optimize its resource extraction and enhance operational efficiency. With a commitment to sustainable practices and a robust portfolio of assets, the company aims to deliver long-term value to its shareholders while addressing the evolving energy landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.12% per annum.
  • MUR price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $33.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.71% per annum.
  • MUR price at the close of February 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MUR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: February 27, 2026

a = 0.4572

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0548

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0548) – 1
= 24.50%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,494 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4572 + 0.0017 × 1,494 + 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(3.0875)
= $21.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,494 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4572 + 0.0017 × 1,494 – 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(2.8683)
= $17.61

February 27, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4572 + 0.0017 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(3.6425)
= $38.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4572 + 0.0017 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(3.4234)
= $30.67

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.12% per annum.
  • MUR price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $33.15 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2025
End date: February 27, 2026

a = 3.0497

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0351

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0351) – 1
= 15.05%

November 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0497 + 0.0002 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(3.5146)
= $33.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0497 + 0.0002 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(3.3744)
= $29.21

February 27, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0497 + 0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(3.5371)
= $34.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0497 + 0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(3.3969)
= $29.87

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.71% per annum.
  • MUR price at the close of February 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.