APA Corporation (APA)
APA Corporation is the holding company for Apache Corporation, a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is organized in Delaware and headquartered in Houston.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.23% per annum.
- APA price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $30.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.05% per annum.
- APA price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.8997
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1140
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1140) – 1
= 57.78%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8997 + -0.0002 × 1,027 + 2 × 0.1140)
= Exp(3.9165)
= $50.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8997 + -0.0002 × 1,027 – 2 × 0.1140)
= Exp(3.4605)
= $31.83
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8997 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1140)
= Exp(3.7521)
= $42.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8997 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1140)
= Exp(3.2961)
= $27.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.23% per annum.
- APA price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $30.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.7806
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0622
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0622) – 1
= 28.23%
August 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7806 + -0.0013 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(3.8751)
= $48.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7806 + -0.0013 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(3.6264)
= $37.58
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7806 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(3.5090)
= $33.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7806 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(3.2604)
= $26.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.05% per annum.
- APA price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.