APA Corporation (APA)
APA Corporation is the holding company for Apache Corporation, a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is organized in Delaware and headquartered in Houston.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.24% per annum.
- APA price at the close of October 1, 2025 was $25.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.98 (13.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 164.09% per annum.
- APA price at the close of October 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2022
End date: August 21, 2025
a = 4.3911
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1126
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1126) – 1
= 56.88%
October 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3911 + -0.0008 × 733 + 2 × 0.1126)
= Exp(4.0051)
= $54.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3911 + -0.0008 × 733 – 2 × 0.1126)
= Exp(3.5548)
= $34.98
August 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3911 + -0.0008 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.1126)
= Exp(3.1287)
= $22.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3911 + -0.0008 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.1126)
= Exp(2.6784)
= $14.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.24% per annum.
- APA price at the close of October 1, 2025 was $25.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.98 (13.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: October 1, 2025
a = -1.6784
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0510
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 164.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0510) – 1
= 22.65%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6784 + 0.0027 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(2.8004)
= $16.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6784 + 0.0027 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(2.5962)
= $13.41
October 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6784 + 0.0027 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(3.2793)
= $26.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6784 + 0.0027 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(3.0751)
= $21.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 164.09% per annum.
- APA price at the close of October 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.