Stock Price Trends

APA Corporation (APA)

APA Corporation is the holding company for Apache Corporation, a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is organized in Delaware and headquartered in Houston.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.24% per annum.
  • APA price at the close of October 1, 2025 was $25.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.98 (13.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 164.09% per annum.
  • APA price at the close of October 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 5, 2022
End date: August 21, 2025

a = 4.3911

b = -0.0008

s = 0.1126

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1126) – 1
= 56.88%

October 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3911 + -0.0008 × 733 + 2 × 0.1126)
= Exp(4.0051)
= $54.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3911 + -0.0008 × 733 – 2 × 0.1126)
= Exp(3.5548)
= $34.98

August 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3911 + -0.0008 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.1126)
= Exp(3.1287)
= $22.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3911 + -0.0008 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.1126)
= Exp(2.6784)
= $14.56

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.24% per annum.
  • APA price at the close of October 1, 2025 was $25.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.98 (13.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: October 1, 2025

a = -1.6784

b = 0.0027

s = 0.0510

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 164.09%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0510) – 1
= 22.65%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6784 + 0.0027 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(2.8004)
= $16.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6784 + 0.0027 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(2.5962)
= $13.41

October 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6784 + 0.0027 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(3.2793)
= $26.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6784 + 0.0027 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(3.0751)
= $21.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 164.09% per annum.
  • APA price at the close of October 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.