Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is engaged in the acquisition, development, exploration and production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquid reserves in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.38% per annum.
- MGY price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $25.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 277.56% per annum.
- MGY price at the close of May 13, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.22 (7.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 8, 2021
End date: March 19, 2024
a = 3.0171
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0886
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0886) – 1
= 42.53%
October 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y607)
= Exp(a + b × X607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 878 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0171 + 0.0000 × 878 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(3.2273)
= $25.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y607)
= Exp(a + b × X607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 878 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0171 + 0.0000 × 878 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.8730)
= $17.69
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0171 + 0.0000 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(3.2610)
= $26.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0171 + 0.0000 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(2.9066)
= $18.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.38% per annum.
- MGY price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $25.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2024
End date: April 16, 2024
a = -3.2554
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0287
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 277.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0287) – 1
= 12.17%
January 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2554 + 0.0036 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(2.9934)
= $19.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2554 + 0.0036 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(2.8786)
= $17.79
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2554 + 0.0036 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(3.3501)
= $28.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2554 + 0.0036 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(3.2353)
= $25.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 277.56% per annum.
- MGY price at the close of May 13, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.22 (7.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.