Talos Energy (TALO)
Talos Energy Inc., an independent exploration and production company, focuses on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Mexico. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- TALO price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $12.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.45% per annum.
- TALO price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TALO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 3.7894
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1150
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1150) – 1
= 58.39%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y807)
= Exp(a + b × X807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7894 + -0.0007 × 1,170 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.2108)
= $24.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y807)
= Exp(a + b × X807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7894 + -0.0007 × 1,170 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(2.7509)
= $15.66
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7894 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(2.7574)
= $15.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7894 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(2.2975)
= $9.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- TALO price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $12.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 2.8957
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0974
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0974) – 1
= 47.65%
March 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8957 + -0.0002 × 1,393 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(2.8769)
= $17.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8957 + -0.0002 × 1,393 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(2.4872)
= $12.03
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8957 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(2.8104)
= $16.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8957 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(2.4208)
= $11.25
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.45% per annum.
- TALO price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.