Northern Oil & Gas Inc (NOG)
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.96% per annum.
- NOG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.68% per annum.
- NOG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.6805
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0913
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0913) – 1
= 44.11%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6805 + 0.0006 × 949 + 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(3.4005)
= $29.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6805 + 0.0006 × 949 – 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(3.0351)
= $20.80
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6805 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(3.8970)
= $49.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6805 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(3.5316)
= $34.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.96% per annum.
- NOG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.5061
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0701
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0701) – 1
= 32.36%
July 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5061 + 0.0001 × 1,459 + 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(3.7520)
= $42.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5061 + 0.0001 × 1,459 – 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(3.4716)
= $32.19
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5061 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(3.7786)
= $43.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5061 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0701)
= Exp(3.4982)
= $33.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.68% per annum.
- NOG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.