Northern Oil & Gas Inc (NOG)
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.76% per annum.
- NOG price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $40.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.75 (29.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.64% per annum.
- NOG price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 16, 2020
End date: February 16, 2023
a = 1.1603
b = 0.0018
s = 0.2398
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2398) – 1
= 160.95%
March 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y210)
= Exp(a + b × X210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1603 + 0.0018 × 306 + 2 × 0.2398)
= Exp(2.2030)
= $9.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y210)
= Exp(a + b × X210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1603 + 0.0018 × 306 – 2 × 0.2398)
= Exp(1.2439)
= $3.47
February 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y947)
= Exp(a + b × X947 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1603 + 0.0018 × 1,373 + 2 × 0.2398)
= Exp(4.1666)
= $64.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y947)
= Exp(a + b × X947 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1603 + 0.0018 × 1,373 – 2 × 0.2398)
= Exp(3.2075)
= $24.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.76% per annum.
- NOG price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $40.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.75 (29.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2021
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 2.4335
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1029
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1029) – 1
= 50.93%
September 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y597)
= Exp(a + b × X597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4335 + 0.0007 × 866 + 2 × 0.1029)
= Exp(3.2552)
= $25.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y597)
= Exp(a + b × X597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4335 + 0.0007 × 866 – 2 × 0.1029)
= Exp(2.8435)
= $17.18
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4335 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1029)
= Exp(3.9379)
= $51.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4335 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1029)
= Exp(3.5262)
= $33.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.64% per annum.
- NOG price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.