Vital Energy Inc. (VTLE)
Vital Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the United States. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.79% per annum.
- VTLE price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $49.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 98.40% per annum.
- VTLE price at the close of May 14, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.23 (2.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VTLE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2021
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 4.9589
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1416
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1416) – 1
= 76.22%
September 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y589)
= Exp(a + b × X589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9589 + -0.0007 × 854 + 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(4.6672)
= $106.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y589)
= Exp(a + b × X589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9589 + -0.0007 × 854 – 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(4.1006)
= $60.38
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9589 + -0.0007 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(4.0451)
= $57.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9589 + -0.0007 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(3.4785)
= $32.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.79% per annum.
- VTLE price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $49.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 5, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 0.5967
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 98.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.19%
December 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5967 + 0.0019 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.8222)
= $45.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5967 + 0.0019 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.6218)
= $37.41
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5967 + 0.0019 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.1132)
= $61.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5967 + 0.0019 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.9128)
= $50.04
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 98.40% per annum.
- VTLE price at the close of May 14, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.23 (2.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.