Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI)
Civitas Solutions, Inc. provides health and human services in the home and community to individuals who must care for individuals with intellectual, developmental, behavioral, and / or medically complex challenges in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.38% per annum.
- CIVI price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $76.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.07% per annum.
- CIVI price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CIVI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2021
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 3.1744
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0946
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0946) – 1
= 45.98%
September 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 869 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1744 + 0.0006 × 869 + 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(3.9209)
= $50.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 869 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1744 + 0.0006 × 869 – 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(3.5426)
= $34.56
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1744 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.5347)
= $93.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1744 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.1564)
= $63.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.38% per annum.
- CIVI price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $76.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 18, 2023
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 4.4868
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0741
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -5.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0741) – 1
= 34.50%
July 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,051)
= Exp(a + b × X1,051 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4868 + -0.0001 × 1,526 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(4.4176)
= $82.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,051)
= Exp(a + b × X1,051 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4868 + -0.0001 × 1,526 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(4.1212)
= $61.63
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4868 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(4.3748)
= $79.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4868 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(4.0785)
= $59.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.07% per annum.
- CIVI price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.