Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Southwestern Energy Company, an independent energy company, is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, petroleum, and natural gas liquids (NGL) in the United States. The company is headquartered in Spring, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.29% per annum.
- SWN price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $7.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.40 (83.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.05% per annum.
- SWN price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 23, 2022
End date: June 23, 2023
a = 3.2444
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0947
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0947) – 1
= 46.06%
March 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2444 + -0.0011 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(2.2770)
= $9.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2444 + -0.0011 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(1.8982)
= $6.67
June 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,500 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2444 + -0.0011 × 1,500 + 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(1.7702)
= $5.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,500 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2444 + -0.0011 × 1,500 – 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(1.3913)
= $4.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.29% per annum.
- SWN price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $7.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.40 (83.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2023
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 0.3809
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0660
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0660) – 1
= 30.24%
January 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3809 + 0.0009 × 1,356 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(1.7376)
= $5.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3809 + 0.0009 × 1,356 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(1.4734)
= $4.36
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3809 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(2.1621)
= $8.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3809 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(1.8979)
= $6.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.05% per annum.
- SWN price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.