Stock Price Trends

Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)

Tyson Foods, Inc. is an American multinational corporation based in Springdale, Arkansas, that operates in the food industry.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.36% per annum.
  • TSN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $60.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.26% per annum.
  • TSN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 8, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.3859

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0567

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.45%

May 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3859 + 0.0004 × 1,103 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.9571)
= $52.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3859 + 0.0004 × 1,103 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.7304)
= $41.69

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3859 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(4.2568)
= $70.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3859 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(4.0300)
= $56.26

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.36% per annum.
  • TSN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $60.58 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.8448

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0409

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.26%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.75%

March 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8448 + 0.0001 × 1,419 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.1256)
= $61.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8448 + 0.0001 × 1,419 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.9622)
= $52.57

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8448 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.1826)
= $65.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8448 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.0192)
= $55.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.26% per annum.
  • TSN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.