Stock Price Trends

Treehouse Foods Inc (THS)

TreeHouse Foods, Inc. manufactures and distributes private label packaged foods and beverages in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.80% per annum.
  • THS price at the close of July 14, 2025 was $20.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.23% per annum.
  • THS price at the close of July 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of THS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2024
End date: July 14, 2025

a = 7.5610

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0673

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0673) – 1
= 30.88%

August 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,503 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5610 + -0.0025 × 1,503 + 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(3.9428)
= $51.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,503 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5610 + -0.0025 × 1,503 – 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(3.6738)
= $39.40

July 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5610 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(3.1389)
= $23.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5610 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(2.8698)
= $17.63

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.80% per annum.
  • THS price at the close of July 14, 2025 was $20.63 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 26, 2024
End date: July 14, 2025

a = 8.9957

b = -0.0033

s = 0.0579

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0579) – 1
= 26.06%

December 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9957 + -0.0033 × 1,625 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.7178)
= $41.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9957 + -0.0033 × 1,625 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.4862)
= $32.66

July 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9957 + -0.0033 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.0539)
= $21.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9957 + -0.0033 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(2.8223)
= $16.82

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.23% per annum.
  • THS price at the close of July 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.