B&G Foods Inc (BGS)
B&G Foods, Inc. manufactures, sells and distributes a portfolio of frozen and non-perishable food and household products in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. The company is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.79% per annum.
- BGS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $8.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.63% per annum.
- BGS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 26, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.1133
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1445
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1445) – 1
= 78.22%
May 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y462)
= Exp(a + b × X462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1133 + -0.0011 × 670 + 2 × 0.1445)
= Exp(3.6452)
= $38.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y462)
= Exp(a + b × X462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1133 + -0.0011 × 670 – 2 × 0.1445)
= Exp(3.0674)
= $21.49
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1133 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1445)
= Exp(2.3391)
= $10.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1133 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1445)
= Exp(1.7613)
= $5.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.79% per annum.
- BGS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $8.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.3824
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1282
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1282) – 1
= 66.99%
September 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y802)
= Exp(a + b × X802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3824 + -0.0007 × 1,162 + 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(2.8627)
= $17.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y802)
= Exp(a + b × X802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3824 + -0.0007 × 1,162 – 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(2.3499)
= $10.49
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3824 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(2.4192)
= $11.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3824 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(1.9065)
= $6.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.63% per annum.
- BGS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.