JM Smucker Company (SJM)
The J. M. Smucker Company, also known as Smucker and Smucker's, is an American manufacturer of jam, peanut butter, jelly, fruit syrups, beverages, shortening, ice cream toppings, and other products in North America. Smucker's headquarters are located in Orrville, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.58% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $118.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.36% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SJM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.7200
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0639
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0639) – 1
= 29.10%
November 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7200 + -0.0006 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(5.1650)
= $175.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7200 + -0.0006 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(4.9096)
= $135.58
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7200 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(4.8202)
= $123.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7200 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(4.5648)
= $96.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.58% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $118.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.8672
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0581
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0581) – 1
= 26.14%
September 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8672 + -0.0001 × 1,521 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.8837)
= $132.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8672 + -0.0001 × 1,521 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.6514)
= $104.73
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8672 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.8638)
= $129.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8672 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.6315)
= $102.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.36% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.