The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a leading American manufacturer renowned for its diverse portfolio that includes jams, jellies, peanut butter, and a variety of other food products, as well as beverages and ice cream toppings. Headquartered in Orrville, Ohio, Smucker operates across North America, focusing on both consumer packaged goods and pet food, with a strong emphasis on brand quality and consumer trust. With a commitment to innovation and sustainability, Smucker continues to expand its market presence while upholding its legacy of delivering high-quality products aligned with evolving consumer preferences.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.90% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of October 28, 2025 was $104.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.82% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of October 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SJM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 18, 2022
End date: August 1, 2025
a = 5.1610
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0690
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0690) – 1
= 31.78%
October 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y495)
= Exp(a + b × X495 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1610 + -0.0003 × 719 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.0716)
= $159.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y495)
= Exp(a + b × X495 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1610 + -0.0003 × 719 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(4.7956)
= $120.98
August 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1610 + -0.0003 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(4.7495)
= $115.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1610 + -0.0003 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(4.4736)
= $87.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.90% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of October 28, 2025 was $104.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2023
End date: October 28, 2025
a = 4.8112
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0519
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.06%
September 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y722)
= Exp(a + b × X722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8112 + -0.0001 × 1,050 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.8325)
= $125.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y722)
= Exp(a + b × X722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8112 + -0.0001 × 1,050 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.6250)
= $102.00
October 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8112 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.7717)
= $118.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8112 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.5641)
= $95.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.82% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of October 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.